The Big Book of Population

If I had a nickel for every time some rabid racist came running up to me in the street asking if I’ve seen population predictions for these United States of America including illegal immigration, I’d be writing this from a mountainside cabin in Norway. Instead, I’m writing from a flatland hut in Liberia. I know many are curious what the population is with serious estimates of illegal immigration and where the country will be in a few years/decades if things continue on their current path. That’s why I’m here, doing what I do, which is to be America’s one true hero.

An Honest Attempt at Population Estimates with Illegal Immigrants

This post is going to be heavily methodological and will likely bore my Dear Reader to tears unless he also has an affinity for Big Stats™. It is imperative that I write this out so that I cannot be accused of forging data and fear-mongering, two things of which we Big Bad Racists love to be constantly accused.

I showed some of the Census data from 1610-Present in my Nation of Immigrants post, but the Reader can view the full thing in my Drive (Census data: 1610-1780, 1790-1950, 1900-1999). This post, however, is solely about projecting the data into the future. One can follow along with my Big Book of Population while reading through this or wait until the end (I suggest opening the book in Google Sheets or downloading it as an excel file, the initial viewing option mangles my graphs). Get a big cup of coffee or snort some Adderall and get to scrollin’.

Step One

Census Bureau data for population predictions by year and this data for demographic estimates.

Census Population without Illegals 1900-2060

Census Demo Screenshot

Step Two

There was a study done in 2018 by Yale and MIT students to calculate the truest estimate for illegal immigrants currently squatting in these United States of America. And, shockingly, the definitive calculation of 11 million that is constantly tossed around by Dems and other smooth-brained charlatans was blown out of the water. The study’s estimates, with a 95 percent confidence interval, fell between 16.2 and 29.5 million (a few simulations of their mathematical model landed over 35 million). Their mean estimate, 22.1 million, is double what the swamp creatures have been peddling for over a decade. It’s also worth noting that Ann Coulter estimated the number to be ~30 million several years ago.

Illegal Immigrant bell curve

Illegal Immigrant Lines

The nature of the issue leads us to believe that using the high estimation is far wiser than using the low. These criminals ExtremelyGoodPeopleWhoHaveSoMuchToOffer:

  1. Cost the country hundreds of billions of dollars every single year.
  2. Cross the border at such a rate that we don’t even know how many we are not apprehending. Well, I suppose the Fed knows, but they aren’t giving us that data. Probably not a good sign.
  3. Dodge the Census for obvious reasons, making our current population estimates likely far lower than they should be.
  4. Send away almost $30 billion in remittances every year (legal+illegal immigrants send a total of $150 billion).

Additionally, the fellas involved with this study stated that they aimed at the conservative side. So, we will begin with a U.S. population in 2017 of 355,719,178 because we should, rather than mistakingly underestimate, greatly overestimate the problem (even though it’s probably close and if we’re off 10 million, that’s still only ~3 percent of the U.S. population).

Step Three

Apply the Census Bureau’s prediction for growth to my estimates for every year through 2060.

Step Four

We will add two-thirds of the Customs and Border Protection (CBP) apprehensions data per year. This is going to be the most arbitrary segment of my math, but there’s no way to avoid it. I simply cannot find any Governmental Entity that will offer an estimation as to what percentage apprehensions are of the total number of people who enter the country (or stay) illegally throughout a year. So, this makes it nearly impossible to accurately estimate the net number of illegal immigrants ExtremelyGoodPeople we’re adding per year. It’s true that a few of those who were apprehended at the border at some point either voluntarily or involuntarily return to their home country, but we know deportation numbers are quite low compared to how many illegals enter the country. Moreover, the vast majority of ICE activity comes after ICE is sent to nab an illegal who is known to be currently breaking the law, which means thousands are floating around of which nobody is aware.

ICE Deportations 2003-16

We also know from the Center for Immigration Studies:

  • 43 percent of all aliens free pending trial failed to appear for court in 2017.
  • Since 1996, 37 percent of all aliens free before trial disappeared from court.
  • Aliens abscond from court more often today than they did before 9/11.
  • Deportation orders for failing to appear in court exceed deportation orders from cases that were tried by 306 percent.
  • 46 percent of all unaccompanied children disappeared from U.S. immigration courts from 2013 through 2017.
  • 49 percent of unaccompanied children failed to appear in U.S. immigration courts in 2017.

We just don’t know who is in the country and they are willing to do almost anything to get here. A pilot program that tests the DNA of folks trying to gain access to these United States shows that a whopping 30 percent of kids being shuttled through Central America and Mexico are unrelated to the adults claiming them. It is absolute pandemonium at the border and the business of smuggling illegals ExtremelyGoodPeople into America is moving toward a $3 billion enterprise. In the long run, our system is set up in such a way that the concept of “open” borders seems practically identical to what we have, and have had for some time.

As one can see in my population book, the total number of apprehensions from 1970 to 2019 is approximately 44.3 million. The Yale/MIT study above, then, estimates between 50 to 67 percent of this number have added themselves to the population by 2018. Whether these folks are the actual people who were apprehended is irrelevant.

All that said, I think it’s fair to estimate the total number of illegals being added to the country each year as roughly two-thirds of the number of people picked up at our borders. We give them court dates to which a huge proportion never show and release them into the interior of the country, we don’t catch tens to hundreds of thousands (or more) of border crossers every single year, some self-deport (probably about four per year) or are forcefully deported, some come into the country in unknown ways, some overstay visas, and so on and so forth. I think using this calculation as a rough estimation of their total numbers is fair and makes for as little speculation as possible given how difficult accurate calculations would be (should any Federal entity even attempt it).

Step Five

Calculate the average of the border apprehensions from 1970 (post-1965 Immigration Act and the beginning of the explosion in non-European immigration) to our present day. The average number of border apprehensions per year (as of June 2019) is 908,496, about 0.3 percent of our 2018 population. Multiplying this by two-thirds gives us ~605,664. I will try to update this monthly, whenever the current number of border apprehensions is released by CBP, although the monthly difference will be fairly negligible with almost 50 years being averaged. Aside: notice that the lowest monthly total was immediately after Trump’s inauguration, as Hispanics probably assumed our border would be fire and brimstone. Boy, egg on their mustard-brown faces!

Border Apprehensions

1970-99 is available in the Big Book on the Border Apprehensions sheet.

(Contrasting the removal statistics from ICE with the CBP apprehensions data shows a net gain of at least a few hundred thousand illegal immigrants per year with our current catch and release.)

This constant I’m using for the population calculations could be lower, but it could just as easily be greater than 1 million. Even if the number is only ~400,000 and I’m overestimating, the plausibility of my prediction is reason enough for concern and should cause us to address it as if it were an accurate estimation. The Reader is familiar with the old idiom: prepare for the best, hope you aren’t overrun by a horde of immigrants.

Step Six

Amalgamate the 2017 Census estimates, illegal immigrant population estimate, predicted population growth from the Bureau, and add two-thirds of the average number of apprehensions as a rough estimation of the net number of illegal immigrants for 2018.

Step Seven

The far more difficult calculations are going to be to figure out the rates at which the races are growing or shrinking. The Migration Policy Institute says 46 percent of immigrants identify as White, 27 percent as Asian, 9 percent as Black, and 16 percent as Other. So, apparently almost half of all immigrants today are from Europe and we are supposed to assume that roughly 16 percent are Hispanic. This is hooey, balderdash, bunkum, and hogwash.

Hispanics and Middle-Easterners (Southwest Asians) often call themselves white on these reports. I guess they want in on some of this privilege they’ve heard so much about, but if they want to go to college they should say they aren’t white. MPI states that 46 percent of immigrants are white, but the following paragraph in their report says 44 percent of foreign-born immigrants in the U.S. are of Hispanic origin. Either that 46 percent is European white or they are classifying Hispanics as white, which is tricky tricksterism.

North and Western Europeans are not moving to the U.S. anymore. The incentives of the Industrial Revolution and/or Big Freedom no longer apply. Especially since most Northwestern European countries rival or surpass the U.S. in the average standard of living (see: Human Development Index). White immigration to the U.S. is limited to Eastern Europe and the “whites” in Arab countries.

The 2017 Department of Homeland Security report on persons who obtained lawful status was 7.5 percent European. I think that will be at or near the true maximal possible rate of immigration from European countries, and the bulk of it is undoubtedly Eastern Europe. They state that the percentage of Hispanic persons who obtained lawful status was about 31 percent among Central America, the Caribbean, and Mexico. The DHS report states 37.7 percent were Asian, 10.5 percent were African, and seven percent were South American.

We know from this Gallup poll that of the 750 million potential migrants in the world, sub-Saharan Africans want to emigrate more than any other region (with the U.S. as their preferred destination). It’s almost as if these countries are shitholes. I bet the HDI rankings for sub-Saharan African countries aren’t all rounding out the bottom of the list, these people have far too much to offer for that to be the case.

This Pew article discusses how quickly African immigration is exploding in America. A whopping 37 percent of refugees landing in the U.S. are from Africa and four of the top-10 countries sending refugees are African (Somalia, DRC, Sudan, and Eritrea). The Twin Cities of Minnesota have been carpet-bombed with ~80,000 Somalis, South Dakota with Sudanese, Somalians, Ethiopians, and Lebanese – more ExtremelyGoodPeople. These are two states that were once almost entirely German and Scandinavian. Is there a population on the planet more opposite to Northwestern Europe than Somalia? One might ask why the government is air-dropping third-world Muslims on these two states since the citizens never gave their consent. They must have been wearing a low-cut top and drinking heavily, just asking for it.

So, of the Census Bureau’s estimation of 0.5795 percent average growth per year, we should estimate that approximately 7.5 percent of that growth is white (up through 2025). Now, the illegal immigration that’s made up of whites is probably, at the very most, one or two percent of total illegal immigration. Let’s say it’s one percent, although it’s probably closer to 0.1 or less. We’ll go with this so I’m not called BadRacistMan, although I’m sure I’ll be called that either way since I’m noticing That Which Shall Not Be Noticed.

  • This source says Hispanics make up approximately two-thirds of illegal immigration in America. However, MPI says upwards of 90 percent are from Mexico or Central America. MPI’s data is more recent, they are a credible source, and the vast majority of illegals we are not catching at the border are going to be Hispanic, so it’s safe to aim closer to the MPI estimate and assume Hispanics make up about 8 out of 10 immigrants currently. Additionally, according to the other MPI report cited in the paragraphs above, 44 percent of current legal immigrants are Hispanic.
  • Africans are the fastest growing population (on pace for more than four billion by 2100) on the planet and have been bombarding the U.S. as of late. Their growth as a percentage of total immigration will continue to increase, but as of now, we will say they constitute approximately 15 percent of legal immigration. With the one percent of whites, 80 percent Hispanics, and geographical issues, it’s safest to split the last 19 percent of illegal immigration between Asians and Africans. Although, Africans are finding ways to cross the U.S.-Mexico border now.
  • Asians get the remaining 33.5 percent of legal immigration and 9.5 percent of illegal immigration (similar estimation of about 10 percent, although these estimations are based on studies that believe there are only 11 million illegals in the country, which is like a 45-year-old believing in Santa).

This gives us the following percentages of population growth. The total is their respective percentage of all inmigration, illegal and legal.

Legal Illegal Total
Hispanic 44 80 52.236
African 15 9.5 13.742
Asian 33.5 9.5 28.010
White 7.5 1 6.013

For consistency in my data, I have to address Alaska Native/American Indians. Mark Twain said, “he is a good, fair, desirable subject for extermination if ever there was one.” I don’t believe that, obviously. It’s just a quote. The Census Bureau has them growing a smidgen every year, so I will make my predictions end in a value as close to theirs as possible.

I will start the white growth rate at 6.013 percent and let the rate at which it increases decline until 2025, where it will level and begin to fall below zero. This will result in a non-Hispanic white population estimate of 198,807,261 for 2025 while the Census Bureau’s estimate is 198,751,000. That would leave us with ~50,000 illegal whites. All the estimates of illegal immigrant demographics completely neglect to mention whites, so their percentage of our total illegal immigration should be negligible, which 50,000 is.

Step Eight

Birth rates, everyone’s favorite topic. According to Pew, the following is the racial breakdown in America (keep in mind that ~2.1 is replacement-level fertility). Hispanics win the gold ribbon at 2.4, blacks barely make the cut at exactly 2.1, but Asians and whites fall well short of replacement level at 1.8. Asians are emigrating fast enough for the birth rates of their American counterparts to be irrelevant, and the average sub-Saharan African woman is still plopping out almost five children (and over seven in Niger). All of this will, in due time, have a strong effect on the demographics of the country.

ALL TOLD

The Census Bureau’s prognostications for the future population of this country show a minor increase (0.55 percent) for non-Hispanic whites up through 2025. At that point, however, we will see Boomers begin to go like diseased cattle and young whites will walk hand-in-hand into oblivion. My estimates will match the Census growth and ensuing decline as closely as possible. The rest will be based on the assumption that Hispanics will continue to blitzkrieg the borders and Africa will have approximately three billion people by 2060, many of whom are going to try to earn the coveted America™ sticker that we slap on the foreheads of refugees/asylees/any non-white person who doesn’t like a GDP per capita of $1,500. Asians, despite having a low birth rate when they settle here, are emigrating quickly enough to foster rapid population growth in America. As the population continues to grow in raw numbers while whites begin to wither away, I will add the difference to Africans, Asians, and Hispanics.

Wasn’t that fun? Well, without further to do, I give you the best population estimates I can possibly muster given the available data. The following graphs and data can all be found here (again, I suggest opening the book in Google Sheets or downloading it as an Excel file, the initial viewing option mangles my graphs).

Boy, it sure would be a shame if all of this stuff were memed into relevance.

Population Estimates with Illegals Screenshot

a-century-of-change.png

Population Estimates Bar Graph by Race

Population Estimates by Race Raw Numbers

Population Estimates White v Non-White Bar Graph

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