Murder: 2013 and Beyond

African-Americans commit murder at a disproportionately high rate in comparison with whites, Asians, and Hispanics. This is well-trodden territory in true right-wing circles and perhaps the Reader is familiar with the 13-do-50 meme, but it is always important to review the fundamentals. Conservatives, if they even admit these statistics are true, will chalk this up as a direct result of Democrat leadership. Leftists of all flavors will say it’s a result of institutional racism. Both of these theses are discussed in my post about Detroit and metropolitan decline.

Down here, in reality, the disproportionate rate is due to blacks having, on average, a greater predisposition toward aggressive behavior than the other races, perhaps stemming from their higher testosterone levels. Who knows, I doubt this will be a big branch of research in the coming years, even if it would answer many questions and render scientific research as a valid use of taxpayer dollars.

The Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) collects comprehensive statistics from across the country every single year in what’s called the Uniform Crime Report (UCR). I, a visionary and genius, think it’s a good idea to look at the data and understand what it says. I know, how radical.

Anyway, the data is compiled in my workbook.

2013-18 FBI UCR Homicide Data
Race Murders % of Total Pop. % Multiple Per 100k
“White” 17,867 47.4 76.5 62% 7.19
Hispanic 4,786 12.7 18.3 69% 8.33
Black 17,921 47.5 13.4 355% 41.68
“White” – Hispanic 13,081 34.7 60.4 57% 6.61

This is all of the homicide data from 2013 to 2018. As the Reader can see, blacks commit 355 percent more homicide than we would predict if each race were to commit a fair share of the crime. Moreover, as one can see, blacks are only 13 percent of the population but commit about half of all murders — 13 really do be doin’ 50.

Moreover, blacks commit murder at a rate approximately 400 and 531 percent higher than Hispanics and whites, respectively. It’s worth noting that, in my post comparing the 15 whitest and blackest cities, the black/white multiple was 573 percent, quite close to the one found in this dataset of the whole country. This makes me quite confident that my estimation is on the right track, despite my fuzzy “white” minus Hispanic math[1].

All this is to say: yes, blacks commit violent crimes at a disproportionate rate when compared with other races. The Reader and everyone he knows avoid “bad” neighborhoods for this exact reason and it’s the correct intuition. Black neighborhoods do the crime, and often. This is true all over the world, all the time.

One has to disfigure and wrap their brain into a pretzel to get around these numbers. Most liberals I’ve approached with these statistics, if we’re in private, simply say “yeah, I know.” The truly ideological leftist, however, will turn into the Manchurian candidate and begin spouting nonsense about how race is a social construct or will give some unfalsifiable version of racism that’s rooted in Heisenberg’s Uncertainty principle.

Anyway, such are the murder rates. One can do with this information what they want.

  1. The recording of white crime is often misleading, as most cities across the country still label people who are genetically Hispanic as white. As of 2013, Hispanics became a separate category in the UCR, giving us a slightly better understanding of crime distribution. However, it’s still likely that “white” crimes contain many hundreds or thousands of Hispanic crimes across the country, each year. Indeed, the “white”, black, and Hispanic murder categories add up to 107.6 percent, lots of overlap. Moreover, we can be quite sure that almost zero Hispanic crimes are actually perpetrated by whites, as essentially zero obviously white men identify as Hispanic and, as is obvious with mulatto African-Americans, people who are not starkly white often choose to identify as non-white.So, in an attempt to overcome this misrepresentation of whites in the crime statistics, I simply subtracted the Hispanic numbers from the white numbers, although this is likely an underestimate for the Hispanic effect on white crime rates. There is probably a more nuanced way to do this, such as finding Hispanic and white incarceration rates for murder, but, quite frankly, I don’t care enough and it’s missing the forest for the trees.

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