13 do 50

Murder: 2013 and Beyond

African-Americans commit murder at a disproportionately high rate in comparison with whites, Asians, and Hispanics. This is well-trodden territory in true right-wing circles and perhaps the Reader is familiar with the 13-do-50 meme, but it is always important to review the fundamentals. Conservatives, if they even admit these statistics are true, will chalk this up as a direct result of Democrat leadership. Leftists of all flavors will say it’s a result of institutional racism. Both of these theses are discussed in my post about Detroit and metropolitan decline.

Down here, in reality, the disproportionate rate is due to blacks having, on average, a greater predisposition toward aggressive behavior than the other races, perhaps stemming from their higher testosterone levels. Who knows, I doubt this will be a big branch of research in the coming years, even if it would answer many questions and render scientific research as a valid use of taxpayer dollars.

The Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) collects comprehensive statistics from across the country every single year in what’s called the Uniform Crime Report (UCR). I, a visionary and genius, think it’s a good idea to look at the data and understand what it says. I know, how radical.

Anyway, the data is compiled in my workbook.

2013-18 FBI UCR Homicide Data
Race Murders % of Total Pop. % Multiple Per 100k
“White” 17,867 47.4 76.5 62% 7.19
Hispanic 4,786 12.7 18.3 69% 8.33
Black 17,921 47.5 13.4 355% 41.68
“White” – Hispanic 13,081 34.7 60.4 57% 6.61

This is all of the homicide data from 2013 to 2018. As the Reader can see, blacks commit 355 percent more homicide than we would predict if each race were to commit a fair share of the crime. Moreover, as one can see, blacks are only 13 percent of the population but commit about half of all murders — 13 really do be doin’ 50.

Moreover, blacks commit murder at a rate approximately 400 and 531 percent higher than Hispanics and whites, respectively. It’s worth noting that, in my post comparing the 15 whitest and blackest cities, the black/white multiple was 573 percent, quite close to the one found in this dataset of the whole country. This makes me quite confident that my estimation is on the right track, despite my fuzzy “white” minus Hispanic math[1].

All this is to say: yes, blacks commit violent crimes at a disproportionate rate when compared with other races. The Reader and everyone he knows avoid “bad” neighborhoods for this exact reason and it’s the correct intuition. Black neighborhoods do the crime, and often. This is true all over the world, all the time.

One has to disfigure and wrap their brain into a pretzel to get around these numbers. Most liberals I’ve approached with these statistics, if we’re in private, simply say “yeah, I know.” The truly ideological leftist, however, will turn into the Manchurian candidate and begin spouting nonsense about how race is a social construct or will give some unfalsifiable version of racism that’s rooted in Heisenberg’s Uncertainty principle.

Anyway, such are the murder rates. One can do with this information what they want.

  1. The recording of white crime is often misleading, as most cities across the country still label people who are genetically Hispanic as white. As of 2013, Hispanics became a separate category in the UCR, giving us a slightly better understanding of crime distribution. However, it’s still likely that “white” crimes contain many hundreds or thousands of Hispanic crimes across the country, each year. Indeed, the “white”, black, and Hispanic murder categories add up to 107.6 percent, lots of overlap. Moreover, we can be quite sure that almost zero Hispanic crimes are actually perpetrated by whites, as essentially zero obviously white men identify as Hispanic and, as is obvious with mulatto African-Americans, people who are not starkly white often choose to identify as non-white.So, in an attempt to overcome this misrepresentation of whites in the crime statistics, I simply subtracted the Hispanic numbers from the white numbers, although this is likely an underestimate for the Hispanic effect on white crime rates. There is probably a more nuanced way to do this, such as finding Hispanic and white incarceration rates for murder, but, quite frankly, I don’t care enough and it’s missing the forest for the trees.

2018: A Black and White World

Donald Trump believes it’s a good idea to let criminals out of jail/prison and it’s essentially illegal to talk about racial crime rates in America, but I thought I’d take some time to parse the 2018 FBI crime statistics by Metropolitan Area. As jaded and bored of crime statistics as we might become, these numbers are still TrueFacts™ and it’s important we shove them in the face of the uninitiated every chance we get.

In case the Reader is new: African-Americans commit crimes, particularly violent ones, at a disproportionately high rate when compared to whites, Asians, and Hispanics. It usually goes blacks > Hispanics > whites > East Asians. The following article is a comparison of the top 15 whitest and blackest cities in America to provide more evidence for this thesis. My workbook is here.

Black Cities

My table of the 15 blackest cities in the United States.[1] It contains the number and rate of violent crime[2], murder and nonnegligent manslaughter[3], and rape[4] — with the averages bolded in the middle.

City % Black Population Violent Crime Murder and nonnegligent manslaughter Rape VC Rate Murder Rate Rape Rate
Detroit, MI 82.7 671,275 13478 261 988 2007.82 38.88 147.18
Albany, GA 71.6 72,594 809 15 28 1114.42 20.66 38.57
Baltimore, MD 63.7 605,436 11100 309 361 1833.39 51.04 59.63
Memphis, TN 63.3 652,226 12674 186 491 1943.19 28.52 75.28
New Orleans, LA 60.2 396,374 4611 147 681 1163.3 37.09 171.81
Montgomery, AL 60 198662 1216 29 39 612.09 14.6 19.63
Average 58.8 321853 4508 107 270 1278.3 31.4 78.1
Baton Rouge, LA 58.5 224,790 2067 79 74 919.52 35.14 32.92
Wilmington, DE 58 71,157 1099 23 14 1544.47 32.32 19.67
Flint, MI 56.6 95,677 1739 32 130 1817.57 33.45 135.87
Shreveport, LA 54.7 190808 1588 49 123 832.25 25.68 64.46
Portsmouth, VA 52.6 94218 749 20 44 794.96 21.23 46.7
Atlanta, GA 52.3 496106 3814 88 245 768.79 17.74 49.38
Harrisburg, PA 51.9 49147 531 15 72 1080.43 30.52 146.5
Washington D.C. 47.7 702455 6613 160 445 941.41 22.78 63.35
St. Louis, MO 47.6 306,875 5,525 187 309 1800.41 60.94 100.69

I understand that this is ugly. I just need to post all of the data for proof, and the summary data will be in the comparison section below.

White Cities

My table for the 15 whitest cities in the United States.[5] It contains the number and rate of violent crime, murder and nonnegligent manslaughter, and rape — with the averages bolded in the middle.

City % White Population Violent Crime Murder and nonnegligent manslaughter Rape VC Rate Murder Rate Rape Rate
Boise City, ID 82.6 229,265 635 1 173 276.97 0.44 75.46
Scottsdale, AZ 81 254,961 422 7 122 165.52 2.75 47.85
Lincoln, NE 80.6 288,589 1045 6 283 362.11 2.08 98.06
Madison, WI 74.5 258,455 1043 5 116 403.55 1.93 44.88
Scranton, PA 73.7 77,827 811 2 43 1042.05 2.57 55.25
Lexington-Fayette, KT 71.8 325579 982 22 243 301.62 6.76 74.64
Portland, OR 71 657260 3418 25 438 520.04 3.8 66.64
Average 69.4 336,031 1,804 17 222 529.33 4.66 65.99
Colorado Springs, CO 68.7 471,124 2617 32 483 555.48 6.79 102.52
Fort Wayne, IN 68.3 267634 1024 40 131 382.61 14.95 48.95
Henderson, NV 67 309586 583 15 65 188.32 4.85 21
Seattle, WA 65.3 742,759 5,052 32 292 680.17 4.31 39.31
Wichita, KS 63.1 391,726 4,622 38 378 1179.91 9.7 96.5
Reno, NV 60.9 252341 1636 6 174 648.33 2.38 68.95
Chandler, AZ 59.1 255,986 606 4 146 236.73 1.56 57.03
Lubbock, TX 52.8 257,372 2,565 13 239 996.61 5.05 92.86

Summary: Black v. White

Caveat: general violent crime and rape can be underreported by a large percentage, murder cannot. The African-American “no-snitching” culture is going to result in an underrepresentation of crimes that don’t have obvious physical evidence, such as a corpse. So, the violent crime minus murder is likely underreported while murder is our most accurate metric for comparison.

Anyway, I compiled the worst three (highest rates) white and black cities for comparison.

Screen Shot 2019-12-01 at 11.51.51 AM.png

One can see from this picture that the three most violent white cities are hardly comparable to their black counterparts.

15 Blackest v. 15 Whitest
Race Violent Crime Rate Murder Rate Rape Rate
Black 1278.269 31.372 78.110
White 529.334 4.661 65.994
BW Multiple 141.5% 573.1% 18.4%

Comparing all 15 whitest and blackest cities, it appears that blacks commit rape only 18 percent more than whites. I believe this is explained by the caveat in the first paragraph of this section. Additionally, blacks commit all violent crimes about 142 percent more than whites.

The kicker, though, is murder, the crime which always has hard evidence and is solved much more often than other violent crimes. The 15 blackest cities commit murder at a staggering 573 percent greater clip than white cities.

Although, all of this is to be expected. Blacks have been committing about the same, disproportionate rate of crime for several decades across the country. For some evidence of this, I compiled the last six years of homicide data in this post, showing that blacks commit murder about 531 percent more than whites, which is on a par with the rate shown in this article.

The great American cities of the twentieth century are currently warzones.

  1. A list of 110 blackest cities in the United States. I went down the list, looking to see if each city was available from the FBI. If the city did not provide their crime data to the FBI, I used the data from the next available city. My list is ordered by descending black percentage and the averages are bolded in the middle.
  2. In the FBI’s Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR) Program, violent crime is composed of four offenses: murder and nonnegligent manslaughter, forcible rape, robbery, and aggravated assault. Violent crimes are defined in the UCR Program as those offenses which involve force or threat of force.
  3. The FBI’s Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR) Program defines murder and nonnegligent manslaughter as the willful (nonnegligent) killing of one human being by another. The classification of this offense is based solely on police investigation as opposed to the determination of a court, medical examiner, coroner, jury, or other judicial body. The UCR Program does not include the following situations in this offense classification: deaths caused by negligence, suicide, or accident; justifiable homicides; and attempts to murder or assaults to murder, which are scored as aggravated assaults.
  4. Forcible rape, as defined in the FBI’s Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR) Program, is the carnal knowledge of a female forcibly and against her will. Attempts or assaults to commit rape by force or threat of force are also included; however, statutory rape (without force) and other sex offenses are excluded.
  5. A list of the whitest (non-Hispanic) cities in America. As with the black table, if their data was not received by the FBI, I replaced it with the top available data of these “white” cities. The second list includes cities such as El Paso, which is 82 percent “white” but only 13.4 percent non-Hispanic white (more on El Paso in my post about “White Supremacy”). I skipped these “white” cities and found the ones that are actually white.After the list was made, I began removing the smallest cities on the list for bigger ones in order to equate the average size of black and white cities. My list is ordered by descending black percentage and the averages are bolded in the middle.